Today at the Farnborough International Air show, Embraer revealed its Market Outlook 2024, a comprehensive 20-year forecast for commercial aircraft deliveries in the sub-150-seat category.

The report predicts 10,500 orders for new jets and turboprops by 2043. It also provides in-depth analyses of global trends and regional influences across six world regions that shape the demand for new aircraft.

The significance of the small narrow body category is on the rise. Larger aircraft are not always the best choice economically or operationally for medium and lower-density markets, especially where multiple daily frequencies are vital for maintaining connectivity. Fleets that include smaller narrow bodies in the sub-150-seat segment can access routes that larger jets cannot, operating more frequently and often more profitably. As the average aircraft size increases in key regions, reflecting a robust order book for 200-seat narrow bodies, it becomes evident that a balanced fleet of both small and large narrow bodies is crucial to effectively serving the varied needs of airline networks.

Arjan Meijer, Embraer’s President & CEO of Commercial Aviation, said, “A mix fleet of sub-150-seat jets and larger narrow bodies will be the successful fleet strategy for the next 20 years. The post-pandemic environment is different in so many ways. The business/leisure passenger mix is different. Demand patterns are different. The corporate workplace is different. And e-commerce is booming. Carriers are adding capacity in big markets, yet smaller cities still need to stay well-connected to airline networks with high frequency air service. We believe aircraft in the sub-150-seat category are the most efficient and cost-effective to address that need.”

The Market Outlook also includes an analysis of the cargo aircraft market, highlighting new opportunities for small narrow body freighters driven by the anticipated growth in online commerce.

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