By the time the US comes to the close of 2025, the tourism recovery which was the result of the pandemic will slowly but surely be much like a fading straw. Domestic travel is still doing well but the number of foreign people visiting the USA has gone down significantly during the last quarter of the year. The National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) data admits that the overseas arrivals have been on a steady decline, particularly from September through November 2025, and this has greatly impacted the recovery trend from the pandemic earlier.

A Steady Decline in Overseas Arrivals

According to NTTO data, September 2025 saw a significant drop of 7.7 percent in international arrivals compared to the same month in 2024. This trend slightly moderated in October, with a 3.1 percent decline year-over-year. However, November figures indicated that the drop continued at 3.5 percent, marking the third consecutive month of decreasing visitor numbers from overseas. The NTTO’s preliminary findings also show that international visitor numbers in October 2025 were 5.7 percent lower than the same month in the previous year, and they represented only 87.4 percent of pre-COVID arrival volumes.

This decline is primarily attributed to changes in travel policies and economic factors that have made it more challenging and expensive for international visitors to travel to the United States. In particular, countries from Western Europe, Africa, and the Caribbean experienced significant decreases in visitor numbers. Notably, overseas arrivals from Western Europe dropped by 5.5 percent in November 2025, and those from Africa plummeted by 15.6 percent. In addition, Oceania and the Caribbean regions reported declines of 14.4 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively.

Regional Shifts in Visitor Patterns

However, while some regions saw dramatic declines, others showed resilience. Visitors from the Middle East saw an increase of 7.5 percent, and Central America experienced a 4.3 percent rise in arrivals. These regions, despite their smaller volume, are becoming increasingly important sources of tourism to the US.

The data also reveals that the top 20 overseas source markets for US tourism are showing varied results. Japan, South Korea, Colombia, Argentina, and Guatemala exhibited growth in the number of visitors, with Israel leading the pack with a notable 21.2 percent increase. These countries are witnessing growing outbound travel as their citizens increasingly seek international destinations, including the United States.

The Impact of Travel Barriers and Economic Challenges

The decline in international visitation can largely be attributed to both political and economic factors. Industry analysts, such as Anna Blount from Datafy, explain that travel restrictions and the Visa Integrity Fee, which was introduced during the Trump Administration, have discouraged potential visitors. The $250 fee for visa applications has raised the cost of entering the US, while visa delays and complicated procedures have created further barriers for travelers from regions like India, China, and Brazil, who do not qualify for the Visa Waiver Program.

In addition to higher travel fees, concerns about immigration policies and personal device screenings have added to the apprehension surrounding US travel. Many international travelers have expressed concerns over their ability to enter the country smoothly, which has directly impacted travel sentiment and caused them to reconsider the US as a vacation destination.

Domestic Travel on the Rise

Despite the decline in international visitation, domestic tourism within the United States has remained robust. According to the U.S. Travel Association, American consumers continue to prioritise travel experiences even as inflation concerns linger. Reports from HotelPlanner show that the drop in international travel has been somewhat offset by increased domestic bookings, with more Americans opting to explore destinations closer to home.

A Fragmented Recovery for US Tourism

While international tourism recovery for the United States is currently slow, experts suggest that the long-term outlook for global visitation remains positive, provided there are improvements in travel accessibility. In the short term, however, challenges such as the Visa Integrity Fee and high airfare costs may hinder a swift recovery.

The Outlook for US Tourism in 2026

The US tourism industry, which is still recovering from the pandemic, has a problem that is signalled by the decrease in international arrivals. Strong domestic demand, however, means that the US will still be a major player in the world tourism market. The year 2026 is expected to be crucial for the US tourism as it faces economic difficulties and visa issues, and at the same time tries to get back its status as a top international tourist destination.

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